Saturday, August 04, 2007

A Radical(ly Self-Serving) Proposal

I've now been a productive member of the economy for a full month, working for a living and being entirely self-supporting. That being the case, inspection of my pay stubs has rather sharply focused my mind on issues of taxation. Being a en econ guy and a Republican's Republican, I have long favored a consumption tax over an income tax, as it would be far more efficient economically, far more difficult to avoid, and after making only a handful of exemptions, more fair than the current system of income taxation. However, the other day I realized there was a taxation system even more efficient than consumption taxation! Not only is it more efficient, it provides the following benefits:

  • It is progressive
  • It vastly reduces the marginal rate at which income is effectively taxed (thus providing a vast improvement in overall economic efficiency)
  • It taxes something far more indicative of wealth than annual income (about the same as consumption taxation, but varying by age)
  • It is harder to avoid than income taxation
  • It provides for very stable and predictable government revenues

Go back and look at the first two bullet points. How on earth can a tax be progressive and reduce the marginal taxation rate at the same time? The trade-off between "fairness" (i.e. progressiveness) and efficiency (marginal rates) is the heart of what is so divisive about taxation. How is it possible get people's tax bills to be roughly as they are, but not tied to their income? Simple:


Direct taxation of wealth.


WHAT?!?!?!?
Bear with me on this. I'm going to go through arguments on how the economics, politics, and practicalities of such a system will work. Hopefully, if you make it to the end you'll be converted. Short of that, if by the end you've moved from wondering whether we should be taxing income or consumption to wondering whether we should be taxing wealth or consumption, I'll consider that a win as well.

The Economics
The first thing to understand, in which is the ultimate beauty of wealth taxation, is the economic difference between a stock and a flow. A flow represents the change in a stock, and similarly a stock represents the sum total of all historical flows. For example, say a person's net worth is $1,000,000 and their annual income is $100,000. The net worth is a stock, the annual income is a flow. Right now, we tax the flow, and I'm arguing we should be taxing the stock instead. Why? A cardinal rule of economics is that all decisions are made at the margin, and the margin is always part of the flow. By taxing the flow we strongly and adversely affect decisions. If the marginal rate of income taxation is 50%, that means that when someone is willing to pay you an extra dollar, you only get to keep half of it, and the separation between what someone is willing to pay you and what you actually receive means that lots of activity that would happen without that wedge doesn't happen. This is the inefficiency of marginal taxation. I'll illustrate with the hypothetical $1M/$100K person.

Here's his situation. Let's flesh it out by assuming his wealth (through investments) and his income (through wage growth) both grow at 3% (real). Say he pays 25% of his income to the government, faces a 30% marginal rate (the income tax is progressive- your marginal rate will always be above your average rate), and say he also saves 5% of his pre-tax income and 5% of his post-tax income and consumes the rest. This is a relatively conservative approximation (very conservative in the case of wealth growth) of the current system. Here is his next 6 years:

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6
Wealth $1,000,000 $1,038,750 $1,078,918 $1,120,553 $1,163,707 $1,208,435
Income $100,000 $103,000 $106,090 $109,273 $112,551 $115,927
Tax $25,000 $25,900 $26,827 $27,782 $28,765 $29,778
Savings $8,750 $9,005 $9,268 $9,538 $9,817 $10,104
Consumption $66,250 $68,095 $69,995 $71,953 $73,969 $76,045
Tax as % Income 25.0% 25.1% 25.3% 25.4% 25.6% 25.7%
Tax as % Wealth 2.50% 2.49% 2.49% 2.48% 2.47% 2.46%


Now lets look at a static-scoring (i.e. not accounting for changes in income behavior) version of this under a 2.5% wealth tax, where he now saves 8.5% of his income (to approximate the same amount as his overall savings rate previously).

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6
Wealth $1,000,000 $1,038,750 $1,078,925 $1,120,576 $1,163,754 $1,208,515
Income $100,000 $103,000 $106,090 $109,273 $112,551 $115,927
Tax $25,000 $25,969 $26,973 $28,014 $29,094 $30,213
Savings $8,750 $9,013 $9,283 $9,561 $9,848 $10,144
Consumption $66,250 $68,019 $69,834 $71,697 $73,609 $75,571
Tax as % Income 25.0% 25.2% 25.4% 25.6% 25.8% 26.1%
Tax as % Wealth 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%

You'll notice these are pretty close to identical. In fact, since wealth grows at a higher rate than income due to savings (and in reality, wealth grows much faster than income), representing this tax as a proportion of income shows this system becoming more progressive than the progressive income tax, despite having a single tax rate.

But here's the great part. What is his marginal rate of taxation? He knows that next year he will have to pay the same tax on his wealth, which is accumulating both on its own (i.e. by collecting interest/dividends/etc) and because he is saving. He can change this in two ways- 1) changing his asset allocation and 2) changing his savings decisions. Examining 1) appropriately would take a journal length paper, so at the risk of ruining my analysis I'll ignore it (except to say that it effectively reduces the risk of any investment since a gain will be paired back at a lower rate than he current capital gains rate, but a loss partially compensated, meaning if there are any changes, it will be moving assets towards riskier and higher return securities rather than towards more conservative allocations) and look purely at the savings decision. His change in tax is 2.5% of his change in wealth, and the change in wealth over which he has control is just his savings, so his marginal tax is 2.5% of his savings. If he has decided in a fixed proportion of income to save (in our example 8.5%), his marginal tax on income is 2.5% of 8.5%, which equals 0.2125% of his income, i.e. basically nothing. If his savings decision is a fixed amount, then his marginal tax on income is actually nothing, since making more won't mean saving (and being taxed) more.

The economic bottom line:
Marginal tax on income: Essentially 0
Progressiveness of taxation: if anything, higher than currently
Government Revenue: Essentially the same

So with this system we apparently have the best of both worlds. Those evil rich people will have to pay higher taxes, and yet we avoid the economic inefficiencies that come with high marginal rates. So what's not to love?


The Politics


Maybe you've noticed and maybe you haven't, but I made a critical assumption in my example above, which is the ration of wealth to income. I had put at 10 to 1 in my example, which on average is probably conservative (a typical company's P/E ratio, to which this is equivalent, is in the teens). However, while this is a reasonable number for an average, it hides the fact that the distribution can vary widely, which is where we run into problems with the politics and the fairness of a wealth tax (and where we reveal the highly self-serving nature of my proposal). In summary:

Defining characteristic of people with Wealth/Income ratios above 10: Old
Defining characteristic of people with W/I ratios below 10: Young

Defining characteristics of people who vote: Old
Defining characteristics of people who make political donations: Old

Can you guess what the AARP would think of my proposal? I would estimate my proposal's chance of passing as-is somewhere slightly below the marginal tax rate it would implement.


As this post is already pretty long, I'll put the political and practical issues off until another post. I'm pretty sure it can be fiddled with enough to be both politically palatable and practical in application. Until next time, think about the idea.

Friday, August 03, 2007

Big Dork

So I moved to New York recently, as I am now done with school and employed. I'm learning (remembering really... I already knew this) that moving is a process and not an event. Anyways, today I was given a stark reminder of what a big dork I am. My super-awesome-$35-from-Wal-mart bookshelf arrived today, so after putting it together I unpacked all the books that I'd shipped up here and vastly exceeded the stated weight limits the directions give for the bookshelf:


The problem hit me about 2/3 of the way through this process. Despite getting a pretty sizable bookshelf, there was simply no way all the books would fit. Damn I'm nerdy.

the rest of the books

Feel free to laugh at me.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

V for Vendetta

I purchased the DVD of V for Vendetta some months ago, but never could make myself pop it in the DVD player and watch it. I finally did the other day, and it holds up well to repeat viewing. Well, I say that, but my love-hate relationship movie remains unchanged. With most movies, love-hate typically means a movie you love to hate, but with V for Vendetta it's harder, because it's a movie I hate to love.

The reason I have an admiration for the movie is that it actually gives an understanding about how a fascist dictatorship actually functions. Orwell once famously remarked (in "Politics and the English Language") that the term fascism "now has no meaning except in so far as it signifies 'something not desirable,'" a judgment that remains spot-on to this day, but V gives you a more direct idea of what fascism really is, often in subtle ways. One of the primary reasons fascism had sympathizers was because it promised to make the trains run on time. From the outside, it makes the workings of government look like a military organization- the guy at the top makes decisions and gives his orders, and the underlings then obey them diligently, and the bickering and pettiness that characterizes democratic politics is done away with. In reality it works quite differently- with fascism, you're dealing exclusively in terms of power. When you're the guy at the top of the pyramid, you have the power, but at the price of never being able to trust your underlings. The consequence is that everyone must be spied on, which is the biggest source of inefficiency- you need a secret police to monitor everyone, particularly those in your government, but you can't give them a monopoly on the spying or the muscle, else you risk your security chief having power independent of your own (this of course was the Achilles heel of the government in V). Furthermore, the principal extends to all functions of government- the boundaries of jurisdiction within the bureaucracy are deliberately left vague, so as to ensure jealousy prevents any individual person from getting too big for his britches. The first time you run into this in V is during the initial investigation of the Old Bailey bombing- Finch's biggest worry is that he needs to find Evey "before she disappears into Creedy's black bags." It's not a moral objection, but a practical one- his worry is that Creedy is hampering his investigation on a matter of critical importance, a complaint he makes more than once.

Secondly, it imparts a good understanding about how the character of different agencies varies- police departments are primarily interested in stopping regular crime, and regardless of regime will be generally populated by decent people. It's the secret police who are the scary, scummy ones. This dichotomy has its parallel in every fascist & communist regime- The Gestapo, Stasi, NKVD, etc- all filled with nihilistic scumbags, top to bottom. You see this very clearly between the regular police and the fingermen in V.

The third major point that is implicitly admitted in V is that dictatorships, or frankly repressive government of any type, do not fall because of internal pressure. They fall because they lose the will to repress (or are overthrown by a foreign power, but this is not touched on). Once they lose the will to power, they lose the power. Modern autocratic governments generally do not fall to revolution from within- either they are overthrown by a foreign power (Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, the Khmer Rouge, Hussein's Iraq, etc.) or they lose the will to repress and give up without a shot fired (most of the Soviet Bloc, apartheid South Africa, Chile). Not once but twice in V we see this- first when the commander orders his men to stand down rather than massacre the crowd, secondly when Finch allows Evey to start the train with explosives. Compare the above to Tienanmen Square. Deng Xiaoping retained the willingness to gun down protesters, and hence he kept his government. It's an important lesson to remember when dealing with say, Iran. While the average Iranian might have lost the revolutionary fervor, Mr. Ahmadinejad likely retains the stomach that let him send brigades of teenagers to clear minefields.


Despite its pretty accurate portrayal of how a fascist government works, comparing the dictatorship in V to Mussolini's Italy is not really what the Wachowskis intended with the script- it's Bushitlerhallichimpburton that's the target here. It's never really an excusable offense when lefties accuse conservatives (at least in America) or Bush of fascism, but it's usually an offense of ignorance- if you think Bush is a fascist, then you either know nothing about fascism or you know nothing about Bush, typically both. But as I've spent much time noting above, clearly the Wachowskis do know something about fascism, which means to make a movie like this is to plumb the Michael Moore depths of manipulative mendacity with regards to anyone simultaneously opposed to both gay marriage and becoming a dhimmi (particularly egregious is the US/UK/Swastika "Coalition of the Willing to Power" poster).

The first problem is with the character of Adam Sutler. He's supposed to be a composite of Bush and Hitler, but the mixture doesn't work. By trying to make him both, he ends up being neither. Hitler would never have put up with a slogan like "Strength through Unity, Unity through Faith" because Hitler was a pagan. He was obsessed with Germanic and Norse myth, with Wagnerian Opera on those subjects, and saw himself as purifying and strengthening a Volk of the Master Race. When I wrote about the Wachowskis and The Matrix series, I noted, "The totalitarians were engaged not in social engineering, but in social art. It was never about 'the people' or 'the masses' or 'the proletariat', it was about their own aesthetic desires." So it was with Hitler. His failure as an artist with paint and canvas prefigured his failure as an artist with flesh and blood. We never see this type of motivation behind Sutler (we see it in Prothero, so we can perhaps conclude that it has sanction from the top, but we never see Sutler endorse it). We are told he was a fanatic, and we see him briefly pound a podium Hitler-style, and there's a brief hint of the paganism (The Norsefire party, which conflicts with the description of him as a man "with deep faith," presumably in God), but every time we hear him speak, his concern is always order. Perhaps the cues I just mentioned are supposed to be sufficient to establish his evil, but I can't help but be reminded of The Greatest Piece of Movie Criticism Ever Written, where Jonathan Last gives his verdict on the Empire in Star Wars:

Lucas wants the Empire to stand for evil, so he tells us that the Emperor and Darth Vader have gone over to the Dark Side and dresses them in black.

But look closer. When Palpatine is still a senator, he says, "The Republic is not what it once was. The Senate is full of greedy, squabbling delegates. There is no interest in the common good." At one point he laments that "the bureaucrats are in charge now."

Palpatine believes that the political order must be manipulated to produce peace and stability. When he mutters, "There is no civility, there is only politics," we see that at heart, he's an esoteric Straussian.

Make no mistake, as emperor, Palpatine is a dictator--but a relatively benign one, like Pinochet. It's a dictatorship people can do business with. They collect taxes and patrol the skies. They try to stop organized crime (in the form of the smuggling rings run by the Hutts). The Empire has virtually no effect on the daily life of the average, law-abiding citizen.

[...]

But the most compelling evidence that the Empire isn't evil comes in "The Empire Strikes Back" when Darth Vader is battling Luke Skywalker. After an exhausting fight, Vader is poised to finish Luke off, but he stays his hand. He tries to convert Luke to the Dark Side with this simple plea: "There is no escape. Don't make me destroy you. . . . Join me, and I will complete your training. With our combined strength, we can end this destructive conflict and bring order to the galaxy." It is here we find the real controlling impulse for the Dark Side and the Empire. The Empire doesn't want slaves or destruction or "evil." It wants order.

It seems to me Adam Sutler, at least as presented in the movie (as opposed to the comic books, which I've not read) is a character in the same vein. The Wachowskis give us the Hitler cues, but his behavior doesn't jive with it. Like Palpatine and Vader, his controlling impulse is order, or rather fear of chaos. Fear of chaos befits a man like Sutler, because the only times we see him off his video screen he is a slight person and a physical coward, quite unlike Der Fuhrer. Adolf Hitler in the flesh was compelling; Adam Sutler needs an enormous jumbotron. Very little of what we see from Sutler on screen gives the impression that he is a fascist at heart; instead, most things distinctly fascist in his government emanate from Creedy (who really is the consummate fascist). This is not to excuse Sutler, since he is ultimately responsible for the heinous crimes of his regime (which are distinctly worse than those of the Star Wars empire in moral terms if not in scope), but instead to say that he could be the subject of a good tragedy along the lines of Macbeth, doomed for listening to and to falling in with the fascists. Given the state the rest of the world is apparently in, one could even sympathize with the temptation.

The contrast with George W. Bush could not be starker. If there's any controlling impulse in Bush, it's personal loyalty. It certainly isn't order. If Bush cared about order above all, Iraq would have turned out much better than it has. In fact it's closer to the opposite- if Bush is to be accused of fanaticism, it is in his apparently unwavering belief in freedom and democracy for all. This could very well damn him to tragedy, but of an altogether different kind. Even his personal management style bears no resemblance to Hitler or Sutler. His is a combination of MBA exec and frat-president- avoiding micromanagement (Hitler on the other hand was a ferocious micro-manager), and reminding people of their place through semi-derogatory nicknames.


Where V for Vendetta gets really bothersome--offensive, actually-- is on the subjects of homosexuals and religion. We hear of Muslims or Islam only on a few occasions: one is when Voice-of-London Prothero refers to them in his list of degenerates England had to rid herself of,
another is when Dominic shows Evey his copy of the Koran, noting its "beautiful images and moving poetry" and ignoring its injunctions to slay the infidels, and a third is when we see a brief clip of a propaganda show. In the show, we see a towelhead caricature sharpening a pair of machetes, apparently about to slice up some blonde girl before Aryan superhero Storm Saxon busts in to rescue her. Now, we only see it briefly so it's not crucial to anything in the film, but it's obviously meant to illustrate the type of propaganda show such a regime would put out. Here's the problem- that kind of thing actually happens (minus the rescue). There really are barbarians out there who saw of heads shouting, "Allahu Akbar!" and pick their victims for no other reason beyond the fact that they're Western and there for the taking (well, sometimes they pick them to extort money). It's a sad reflection on a movie when a TV-show-within-a-movie intended to be transparent propaganda of a fascist regime reflects the real world more than the movie itself does. A further point on the minimization of Islam in the movie: by the brief glimpses we get it looks like the rest of the world has completely gone to hell. The "former United States" is mired in civil war as a result of "its war," and from what else we see the rest of the world doesn't look like it's much better off. Now, I think we can allow ourselves a moment of honesty to admit that if in twenty years the world looks anything like it does in V, then Muslims (or at least people claiming to be Muslims) will have had something to do with it, and they'd still be the hot topic in any place still clinging to what's left of modern Western life. On the flip side, if as Prothero hints they've been either expelled or exterminated, then I suppose not seeing them much would make sense. The problem with this interpretation is that we now have the paradox of a movie implicitly saying there's no problem with Islam, that anyone claiming otherwise is a fascist, and yet demonstrating that fascist methods are what will get us into no-problems-with-Islam land.

As annoying as its treatment of Islam is, where I really get offended is how the movie handles homosexuality. Now, on one level it's historically accurate to show homosexuals snatched up and "processed," as the movie puts it-- Hitler did after all round them up and gas them along with the Jews, Gypsies, Communists, and others. But by dwelling on it so much, I felt like the movie was pointing a finger saying, "You! You who aren't to thrilled about the idea of gay marriage! You're oppressing gays! You want them herded into a lab so a latter day Mengele can have his way with them!" More to the point, I felt the movie was accusing me of that. I'm opposed to gay marriage, but I have no desire to use the power of the state to do anything to gays. At some point I'll elucidate my views more, but that's the bottom line, and when a movie is accusing me of what I think it's accusing me of, I take it personally and consider it borderline slanderous. I get even more offended when I remember that there really are people who want that, and there really are countries where homosexuals really do have to fear for their lives. Anyone want to take a guess who those people are? Here's a hint: they're the beautiful-images-and-moving-poetry wielding, Allahu-Akbar shouting types. Settling for a civil union is not Sharia. The only union gays get under Sharia is the one between a dynamited wall and the ground. What aggravates me even more is that in V, it's the highly sympathetic gay character, the one who's forced to live his life in frustration while putting on a smile and keeping appearances, who coos over the moving poetry! It takes an astounding obtuseness on the part of the filmmakers to get things that backwards.

Going back to the religion angle, it's repeatedly shown that anyone espousing Christianity (at least we assume it's Christianity- we hear of God and faith, but never Christ) is either a nut or cynically hypocritical about it. The C of E apparently exists solely to molest children. It hurts the movie because it makes hash of so many other things. There are people who call the wrath of God down on their enemies, and claim a divine right to do whatever they want to others, but not fascists. In the West, the idea that God gave special providence to your country just because you were born there died somewhere on the way to the German trenches at the Somme. Fascism was what rose in its place, just as Nietzsche predicted. I'm tired of harping on it more, but there still are people in the world who believe they have a divine obligation to kill you. Again, they ain't Baptists.

However, all that being said, I'm still in the position of hating to love this movie. My begrudging admiration lies ultimately in its ultimate subconscious honesty about what the character V really is. When I say subconscious, I mean that you have to ignore Evey's Stockholm-syndrome eulogy and look at his actions. The one line that haunts this movie, that cuts through all the theatrics and gets to the truth of the matter, is the observation by the arch-fascist Creedy, "you're like me." Stripped to its core, V for Vendetta really is about vendetta. There is an age-old tradition that in a revenge drama, the hero must be a tragic hero who dies as a result of his revenge- a comment on the inherent moral problem of revenge. The filmmakers (and I assume the comic writer as well) was wise to stick to this convention, as V himself is forced to come to terms with the accuracy of Creedy's (and for that matter, Evey's, when she called him a monster) judgment. He is a romantic, so he needed to tell himself that it wasn't just about him, that instead he was a modern day knight avenging his wronged lady, or that underneath his mask there was some bulletproof idea, but he had to eventually admit that in the end, it really was just about him. What I self-quoted above about the totalitarians goes equally for V, "It was never about 'the people' or 'the masses' or 'the proletariat', it was about their own aesthetic desires." When I originally wrote that, I had intended to add, "The masses were merely props in their own personal drama." I now really wish I had written that back then, because it's as close to the literal truth about V as such a statement could be-- for him the masses were just there for him to foist his own image on them.

What really brings him down to the level of the fascists is what he does to Evey. By splicing it with the story of the actress and (on first viewing) leaving the audience to assume she's been captured by Creedy's goons, the movie pushes your emotional response against the government. As a narrative device, it's perfect, but it does obscure the essential point that V had no justification whatsoever to do it. His only weak defense is, "you wanted to live without fear," which mendaciously attempts to place the blame on Evey rather than himself. What was his real purpose? Self-protection. Evey was sympathetic to his goals, but had attempted to escape. He could not trust her to roam the world freely, and said so himself. Sympathy wasn't sufficient for V; he needed complete submission. So he broke her, 1984-style, so that she would love Big Brother when she was let free. How is this in anyway different from a fascist regime that behaves the same way? They break people because they are deemed threats to the regime, out of the same sense of self-preservation. That they do such things is one of the primary knocks against them. V remarked that Creedy was a man "for whom the ends always justified the means," but could the same not be said of V? Can we point to any means which V did not believe were justified by his ends? "You're like me." The barb sticks.

With V, we also have the added complication of his explicit admission of being a liar, and more to the point lying to serve his ends. The reason this complicates things is that most of what we see of the government's crimes is filtered through him. When he pretends to be the former bagman and tells Finch the story to match the facts he's gathered, how much can we believe? He needed Finch to order surveillance of Creedy, presumably so that he could use it to get access to him (as an aside, it's never explained how he has infiltrated the police network- Creedy suspects an inside source, but the issue is never resolved. How, for example, did he know so quickly that he needed to kill the bishop? He tells Evey that he had to move things up, but that only makes sense if he knew Finch was in a position to find the bishop, which had only happened within a day or so?). Is it, as Finch suspected afterward, bullshit? Some? All? Furthermore, how is it V came to this knowledge? In Dr. Surridge's diary, we learn that V had entirely forgotten his identity, so not only can we not trust that what he says is in good faith, on account of psychological damage we cannot even trust that what he does say in good faith is true. For some events, there is sufficient corroborating evidence for the crimes of the government (the aforementioned diary), but even where they are not in doubt, by systematically killing everyone associated with the detention center and making a point to do it before Finch could glean any information from them, he prohibits any possible witness outside of his own. It's puzzling at best, since if he had failed in his attempt to bring down the government he would have successfully helped it it cover up its greatest crime. If the reason is simple desire for revenge, we then have to consider that his revenge motive not only brought his methods down to the level of the fascists, but they additionally jeopardized the ability to demonstrate a real crime in favor of self-indulgent theatrics, which only succeeded by virtue of human decency on the part of government agents. If things went as normal "when people without guns stand up to people with guns," as Finch put it, the theatrics certainly would have failed. That V succeeded in bringing down the government is to his credit, as we are left to assume things got much better afterwards, but to his discredit is that he did it for entirely selfish reasons.


I am left with the same opinion of the Wachowskis I expressed over a year ago before I saw V for Vendetta. When they let their characters be themselves and trust the audience to "get it," they are brilliant. When they put their own words into their characters mouths- which is to say, when they simultaneously try to have their characters both take part in the action and enunciate their commentary- they make hash of things. At the lowest level, that of concrete action, they imply a number of truths that lefty artists ignore, and what sets them apart as filmmakers is that fundamental artistic honesty. Again, I find myself repeating what I said then- Hoping for them to explicitly admit what they implicitly admit is almost certainly in vain. In fact, even if they began to do so in their films, it would probably end up with similar results, except that the ponderousness and contradictions would merely grate less on me and more on others. What they really need to do is remember the discipline they kept when they made The Matrix. Just tell the story! Doing so adds to, rather than subtracts from the richness of it. Resist the urge to comment on the story in the telling! Such comments will be at best superfluous, and at worse contradictory. If the Wachowskis can ever manage that again, they will create great movies.

Saturday, May 12, 2007

I'm Not Alone

Apparently, I'm not the only one thinking that there's another way to manage Iraq, granted the requisite cynicism and icewater in the veins (which, as I said, I don't have enough of at this time). Mort Kondracke has titled his version "winning dirty":
The 80 percent alternative involves accepting rule by Shiites and Kurds, allowing them to violently suppress Sunni resistance and making sure that Shiites friendly to the United States emerge victorious. No one has publicly advocated this Plan B, and I know of only one Member of Congress who backs it - and he wants to stay anonymous. But he argues persuasively that it's the best alternative available if Bush's surge fails. Winning will be dirty because it will allow the Shiite-dominated Iraqi military and some Shiite militias to decimate the Sunni insurgency. There likely will be ethnic cleansing, atrocities against civilians and massive refugee flows.

It's not exactly the way I saw it almost two weeks ago, but it's pretty much the same. I doubt I can take credit for the strategy, considering I get about 1 hit/day. I'm not sure I'd even want to, considering how grisly it is. Kondracke's not the only one thinking that way, either. Francis Fukayama has actually advocated such a strategy:
An intensifying civil war will be a tragedy for Iraq, but it is not the worst outcome from a U.S. standpoint to have a number of bitterly anti-American groups duking it out among themselves.

I'd also forgotten that John Derbyshire's been beating that horse for sometime now. I have to say, though, that Victor Davis Hanson put it best in his response to Derb's query as to why it was acceptable for Fukayama to propose it, but not him:
P.S. And Derb, speaking as a philologist, and in our therapeutic culture, it's all in the language of euphemism as you know. Had you just said "duking it out" to describe the vicious beheading, head-drilling, gassing, and blowing up of children rather than the more intellectually honest "slaughtering each other", you would avoided some cheap charges of neanderthalism.

And in that regard, it is always more palatable to greet abject internecine slaughter as "not the worst outcome" (classical litotes), than with the honest admission of "with calm composure."

After all when we flee, we want to be reassured in bite-your-lip regrets that what follows is a sort of de Hoya/Mayweather dust-up-not to be calmly assured that it is an above-the-ground Dante's Inferno.

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Right on

Here's a nugget of gold found by Andrew Stuttaford at the Corner:
Here's a working definition: If you hear the phrase "Social Justice" and you feel the urge to lay about the speaker with a claw-hammer, you're right-wing. If you think you know what the phrase "Social Justice" means, and use it to explain your philosophy you're a lefty (and should be killed with a claw-hammer).

This brings to mind a (by definition, I suppose) right wing joke, noting that anytime "social" is used as an adjective, the subsequent noun loses all meaning. Think not only of "social justice" but "social studies" and "social science". Please note any other examples you can think of in the comments.

Monday, April 30, 2007

What Would a 'Realist' Position on Iraq Be?

I've not been posting anything in a matter of months, a pattern which may or may not continue, although I hope at some point to resume regular posting (Question: If this blog has nine lives, does that make me a kittyblogger?). While I'd like to say I haven't had the time, that would be a bald-faced lie. The main reason is that I've just been too depressed about the state of the world, Iraq, the GOP, etc. to really want to say much or even pay much attention.

Nonetheless, I've been kicking around the idea of what a 'realist' position what to do in Iraq ought to be. In practice, the position is "going to Iraq was a mistake" (with which I do not agree), but that masks the fact that "invading Iraq was a mistake" is not a position on what to do now. The Democrat's position is "we should leave ASAP" (or at least, "we should leave sometime in the next few months, and make it known world-wide precisely the schedule on which we will withdraw"). That at least is a position on what we should do now. Perhaps there is a fully-enunciated realist position on Iraq, but I haven't seen it (if there's anyone out there reading this who has seen one, I'd love to read it). So this post is an effort to piece together what such a position ought to be. Note beforehand that I do no endorse this position, for primarily moral reasons, but I think it's an interesting position, for a number of reasons: 1) It meshes precisely with the Democratic position, but gets there from an amoral, hard-nosed, national-interest perspective, 2) Because of point #1, I think Democrats ought to be wary that even if they believe that withdrawing is the moral thing to do (which I believe is ultimately the case- I'm pretty convinced liberal opposition to the war is primarily pacifist moral objection to taking part in war), there is another line of thought that agrees with their position but is amoral (actually, as we shall see, highly immoral). The point is that when someone agrees with your position, but does so from a viewpoint you find reprehensible, you ought to really check your assumptions on what the likely effects will be- if you're right, then you're right, but if he's right, then you've just his useful idiot.

Anyway, the starting point of a realist position is the reverse of the realist assumption in the cold war. As Spengler has argued repeatedly, realist emphasis on political stability in the Middle East was based on the (largely correct) belief that the Soviet Union was better able to take advantage of instability than was the U.S./NATO, but now that there's no more Soviet Union, we benefit more from instability. Let's look at a simplified pros & cons of stability, with the italic out terms indicating what we cared about in the Cold War, but no longer worry about:

Stability-
Pros: Cheaper oil, Gulf States not becoming client states of the USSR, low risk of major regional war that cold draw NATO and the USSR into direct conflict.
Cons: Cost of keeping enough carrier groups in the region to ensure the Straits of Hormuz remain open, Arabs have perfectly rational reasons to hate us on account of living under repressive autocracies we support.

If you'll notice, getting rid of what we cared about in the cold war makes a decisive shift- considering that direct military conflict between NATO and the USSR posed a real threat to the continued existence of mankind, it's distasteful but quite understandable that we'd rather just stick with the Hashemites, Al-Sauds, Assads, and even the Husseins of the region. Now, the cost-benefit doesn't balance the same way. Even cheaper oil isn't of the same importance it used to be. One of the enormously underreported stories of the last 25 years is how much more energy efficient we have become. As a percentage of GDP, we spend half what we did during the '81-'82 oil price spike. Put another way, if you view energy as a necessary component to producing everything else, a dollar spent on energy today produces twice what it did 25 years ago. In short, we can afford expensive oil. 25 years ago, high oil prices caused recession (in conjunction with monetary tightening necessary to break inflation, it caused a very bad recession). 15 years ago, high oil prices caused a mild recession. Last year, high oil prices merely deflected GDP from strong growth to OK growth, and demonstrated that having $60-$70 oil for months on end does not mean recession anymore.

So where does Iraq come in? Before we get there, we need to make clear our overriding concerns in the region. First and foremost is that regimes that are hostile, potentially hostile, or weak enough to fall to Islamists must not get the bomb (i.e. every country in the Middle East). The ultimate reason for this is that it creates an intolerable threat of nuclear terrorism. The secondary reason is that if a hostile regime comes into possession of nuclear weapons, it will swiftly dominate the region as an imperial power and be an enormous threat to us and especially to Europeans, who will be pinned down by a hostile monopolist controlling their oil supplies and their own increasingly militant minorities. Iran is the obvious and most likely case, but a nuclear Saudi Arabia that falls to Al-Qaeda would be at least as great a threat. The second concern is the long term problem of Islamist militancy. There sources of this are the subject of innumerable analyses by people far more knowledgeable than I, but two elements have to be given fairly high prominence: Saudi money crowding out any non-Wahhabi version of Islam, and the abundance of unemployed young men susceptible to identifying with the Islamists.

So here's the question: How do you simultaneously make Iran shift resources away from its nuclear program, get Saudi Arabia to shift its resources away from pushing Wahhabism around the globe, give all those unemployed young men something to do, and to top it off stop having American troops get killed? The first time I heard the answer to this question, it was meant as an ironic joke. Some time ago (maybe early this year or late last), Stephen Colbert made the following observation on The Colbert Report, "If Iraq is in civil war, then by definition we're not a part of it. It's called an exit strategy." The realist position I have in mind is Colbert's without the irony.

The first thing that would happen should we leave Iraq would be an immediate campaign of ethnic cleansing/genocide of Sunnis by Shiites. Such has already been happening in slow-motion in Baghdad (stopping this is one of the goals of the troop surge) and would rapidly escalate in our absence. From an amoral realist standpoint, a Shiite genocide campaign against Sunnis is what programmers might call a feature, not a bug. Why? I remember hearing some time ago that a number of gulf states were begging the administration not to leave Iraq, as then they would feel forced to intervene to protect Iraqi Sunnis. The purpose of pulling out of Iraq would be to precipitate that intervention. One of the many sub-reasons for invading Iraq went by the moniker of flypaper theory- that jihadis of all stripes would be drawn into Iraq, where they would be up against the U.S. Army rather than airline passengers. The same theory would apply here, the difference being that no Americans whatsoever are involved in the conflict. Iraq would still be the central front in the War on Terror, but we would be leaving the fight to proxies.

Without question, this would be a high-risk strategy. We would be purposefully dangling Al-Qaeda's El Dorado in front of them- the prospect of a country to call their own, "the base" of their restored-Caliphate fantasy, even if it be a an impoverished, oil-less rump of a partitioned Iraq- with the hope that they would be unable to attain it. The danger of course lies in the possibility that they might. It was precisely this occurrence in Afghanistan that resulted in 9/11. Remember though- Afghanistan caused us no trouble while it remained in civil war. It was only in 1998 when the Taliban had won and welcomed the booted-from-Sudan Osama bin Laden that it became a problem for us. The benefit of civil war in Iraq lasts only as long as the civil war, and the imperative of letting it begin would be that we ensure that it does not end, and no one wins; All parties to it- Iran, Al-Qaeda, and the gulf states- must be kept in continual state of attrition warfare. The analogy would be that we are in the position of Richelieu during the Thirty Years War, who ensured that the fighting in Germany never stopped until all parties save France were broken and bankrupt.

I choose the Thirty Years War comparison for a second purpose. What is important for the West in its relations with Islam is that Islam have a Peace of Westphalia. The entire presumption of the state forswearing religious persecution and war along sectarian lines is that religion come to a reflective arrangement- that the power of religion will remain in the realm of morality and conscience, that while it may seek temporal outcomes, it will seek them through persuasion and not force. That bargain will be strained to the breaking point in Europe very soon, unless Islam has its own Treaty of Westphalia. What we are currently doing in Iraq is offering it to them the easy way- removing a totalitarian dictator and attempting to replace it with a reasonably functioning pluralistic democracy. The realist strategy I am outlining is giving it to them the way we in the West got ours- decades of war, famine, pestilence, and death, ended only by utter exhaustion and inability to continue the fight, with the principle of tolerance for its own sake only retrospectively inserted into the bargain.

In any event, our withdrawal from Iraq would result in a three-way civil war, with Iran seeking imperial sway over Iraq and its oilfields (which would forestall the Iranian regime's own impending bankruptcy due to its declining reserves), Al-Qaeda seeking to secure its own state, and the gulf states who would feel existentially imperiled by either occurrence. Kurdistan would almost certainly declare independence, and would likely want our protection, which we would give, providing us with a base of operations in the region outside of the maelstrom the rest of Iraq would become. The Iraqi civil war would swiftly become an enormous drain on the resources of all parties involved.

In addition to the danger that Al-Qaeda and/or Iran will succeed in its objectives, the other place where the strategy could backfire would be in nuclear proliferation. Iran is not what I am thinking of- with Iran in open hostilities with a number of gulf states that are putatively our friends and allies, we would have any number of internationally acceptable justifications for militarily striking at their nuclear facilities, provided we can find them. The danger is that Saudi Arabia will feel that nuclear weapons are their only means of survival and seek to acquire them, most likely from either Pakistan or North Korea. This would present us with a fiendishly difficult problem. The civil-war-as-exit strategy only works when the combatants choose to stay conventional, or at least choose to stay conventional until their resource drain is too far advanced to take any other course.


As I said at the beginning of the post, I in no way endorse this strategy. Allowing genocide to happen through inaction (Rwanda, Darfur) is a plenty sizable moral stain- purposefully taking action that will result in genocide because that's in our interests is beyond reprehensible. It's not quite on the level of the perpetrators of genocide, but it's not far away. I should be clear that I'm not accusing anyone who favors withdrawal with supporting genocide, just laying out a line of thought that does so while favoring an identical course of action. I do this so that those who do want to withdraw might consider their position- what do they think will happen in Iraq after we leave? Pulling out the troops is not the same as getting a do-over starting in February 2003. It won't undo what has already been done. To adapt the "Pottery Barn rule," we've already broken it, we already own it. It's irrelevant if you'd rather that we hadn't- The relevant question is what we're going to do with it now.

Saturday, December 09, 2006

Who's Afraid of Trans Fat?

Ann Althouse thinks she's figured out the anti-fat crusaders (h/t Instapundit):
I can't prove it, but my intuition is that all the strength on the "health" side of this war comes not from people who really care whether other people are healthy, but from people who don't like having to see fat people. They are concerned about their own aesthetic pleasures, and they think fat is ugly.
Althouse is close, but I think there's something else at work here. She's right to say that it's not about concern for fat people per se, but about the anti-fat crusaders themselves.

I'll show what I mean by a story. about high school calculus. My teacher (who shall remain nameless, but anyone who knew me in high school will know exactly who I'm talking about) was the type of person who had needed to work very hard to learn the material herself, but had in fact mastered it and was an excellent teacher, so far as explaining the material was concerned. However, she had a particular combimation of ego and insecurity that made her two different people depending on what class you were in. She taught both AB Calc and BC Calc, and the selection effect on the classes was that if you were a solid, normal honors student, but not really a math person (or you were allergic to anything that smelled like overachievement), you took AB Calc. If you were a math person, an overachiever, or recoiled at the thought of wimping out of taking a course because it was hard, and you didn't necessarily view GPA as the best measure of your value as a person, you took BC. I was in the latter group.

The selection effect resulted in a very different mix in each class- by and large, the AB kids were smart hard working kids who were diligent about doing all the work, and in this respect were similar to the teacher. To these kids, the teacher was all ego and condescention, because a) she was just a tiny bit smarter than they were, and b) she (obviously, being the teacher) knew stuff they didn't. In the BC class, however, thigns were different. She was not as smart as the BC kids, and so made a point to make sure we knew that she knew more than us, and also made a point to make sure we knew what special conferences she went to and what committees she was on. Not that she didn't deserve to be on them-- on the contrary, as I said earlier, when it came to explaining the material she was excellent-- but her constant reminders of them gave off the distinctive whiff of insecurity, the source of which was I think the fact that we really didn't have to work as hard as she did to learn the stuff the first time.

Now, when it came to homework, she was clearly of the belief that everyone ought to work (and more to the point, ought to need to work) as hard as she had to learn Calculus, so she would assign somewhere between an hour to an hour & a half of homework every single night. For me, this was a nonstarter. I was a senior in high school, already infected by senioritis when it came to schoolwork, but more to the point, I was in the marching band, I was cheerleading, and I was applying to college. I was leaving home for school at 6:45 AM, getting back around 7:00 PM. My time was at a premium, and I had little intention of giving up an hour and a half every day for mind-numbing repetition in order to satisfy this teacher's ego. So I did somewhere between a thirs and a half of the homeowrk, until either I had satisfied myself that I knew what was going on, or it was 12:30 (I had a firm rule- I went to sleep at 12:30, and anything that wasn't done by then was less valuable then sleep). This caused untold strife between myself and the teacher. She would berate me in front of the class roughly twice a week. The stated cause was always lack of homework- she once actually said that she took it as a personal insult that I didn't bother to do it all (which justifies everything I have said about her motivations regarding homework)- but there were other factors that obviously aggrivated her as well: First, I had the habit of getting A's on the tests, despite her repeated claims to the class that failure to do all of the homework would leave them woefully underprepared for tests. Second, I never in any way apologized for not doing all the homework, and never indcated in any way that I thought wrong for what I didn't do. Third, while I never said so explicitly, I made it clear that band and cheerleading were higher up on my list of priorities than her homework. I was never rude or insubordinate about any of this, so she never had any justification for any punishment beyond a dismal homework average. But she was obviously morally offended by the way I went through her class. The source of the moral offense was I think twofold- 1) the fact that I did not have to work as hard as she once had to learn the material, and 2) that I did not give as high a priority to her class as she thought it deserved.

I mention this in the context of the health crusaders because I think they are morally offended in the exact same ways. First, they tend to be in shape themselves, but I expect out of a combination of age and genetics they have to work very hard and sacrifice a lot of tasty food to maintain their good shape. The idea that someone could remain in good shape and eat the kinds of foods they can't eat is morally offensive to them (in the sense that it indicates an essential unfairness about universe- if I can't eat eat that, then no one shoudl be able to). Secondly, the existence of obese people indicates that not everyone values physical fitness as much as them, and is willing to say "damn my waistline, full speed down the buffet table!" Again this is morally offensive, with the added visceral repulsion that Althouse mentions.

As with the calc class, I'm the type lucky enough to be able to eat tasty, fatty foods, and stay in pretty good shape, and I really resent the people who want to take them away from me. I'll fight for my cheeseburgers.

Thursday, August 17, 2006

Andrew Sullivan

I've never read him on a regular basis, but have sort-of admitted that I should, by putting him in the "And Everything I Should Read More Than I Actually Do" section of my blogroll. This no longer describes Andrew Sullivan. Allahpundit drops the zinger:
Please note: Ana Marie Cox is now the only one of Time’s holy trinity of bloggers who hasn’t floated a batshit conspiracy theory on the magazine’s website. And she’s “the dumb one.” It’s Sullivan and Joshy Rolled-Eyes, the “serious” political thinkers, who have taken to using an esteemed newsweekly as a bullhorn to minimize terrorism. But say this for Marshall: at least when he’s dogpaddling through the fever swamp, he doesn’t pause intermittently to lecture his readers about what “true conservatism” means.
There's a terror plot to blow up a bunch of airplanes. The would-be perpetrators have the airline tickets and the bomb materials, the Brits take them down the day of/day before they were going to make a "dry run" that involves taking the bomb material on the plane, and Mr. Sullivan "questions the timing" because Bush needs to distract people from Ned Lamont's primary victory over Joe Lieberman! Not only that mind you, but now we have the "subversive theory" (btw, when did the subversive become good?) that Cheney and Rumsfeld deliberately screwed up Iraq so that they have an excuse to bomb the Muslim world into submission (via Ace). As Allahpundit says, the clinical term for this behavior is "batshit crazy." Off the blogroll with you...

Aside: "Question the Timing" is a particularly egregious example of the "I Question...", on which I've heaped scorn and derision before.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Solid Gold

That's what Sandmonkey has provided, in an open letter to Nasrallah:
However, it is quite impossible that everybody who is calling for a cease-fire is a zionist traitor. I think the problem is that those people don't have any dignity, or at least have the wrong definition of dignity. Don't be hard on them, god knows I was one of them before I saw the light. I always thought the definition of dignity was that you have a good job, a decent house, could afford your kids a decent living in a peacefull country with a future. What american zionist propaganda. Dignity is getting attacked due to the actions of your leader, to the point of losing everything, and still refusing to hold that leader accountable. Dignity is having your entire neighborhood bombed, your children killed, and your only reaction is to dance in the streets like zulu warriors in support of Hezbollah. That's what dignity, pride and honor are all about. I get that now.
...
Don't worry about any backlash on the short or long run. I mean, look at Nasser: He too entered wars against enemies far stronger than him, and caused the death of thousands of egyptians and the economic destruction of the country for decades to come. Do the people hate him? Noooooo. They love him, because he gave them dignity. Hell, your biggest supporters in Egypt keep comparing you to him, and they love you for reminding them of the dignity they feel whenever arabs die. Thank you for reminding them how it feels like to have dignity. Thank you.
Read the whole thing. The sad part is, there's more than a bit of truth in what he's saying- that there are lots of people who feel that way for real.

For discussion: Is it possible that no one won?

For more discussion: Is Nasrallah the Dan Duquette of terrorism?

Monday, August 14, 2006

Creeping Dhimmitude, Exhibit #75849378

This hasn't made it to Dhimmi Watch yet, but it should.

HotAir links a story about a British girl who was denied a passport because her photo might be offensive to Muslims:

A five-year-old girl's passport application was rejected because her photograph showed her bare shoulders.

Hannah Edwards's mother, Jane, was told that the exposed skin might be considered offensive in a Muslim country.

The photograph was taken at a photo-booth at a local post office for a family trip to the south of France.

All jokes about France already being a Muslim country aside, "ridiculous" doesn't even begin to describe this business. Perhaps someone ought to actually offend Muslim countries to see if it's possible these days anymore.

Oh wait.